招银国际Alex Ng,Lily Yang,Lana Lin近期对生益科技(600183)进行研究并发布了研究报告《1H22 results miss; Maintain HOLD》，本报告对生益科技给出持有评级，认为其目标价位为19.20元，当前股价为17.36元，预期上涨幅度为10.6%。

生益科技(600183)

Shengyi Tech’s 2Q22 revenue/NP to shareholders declined 13.5% YoY/47.9% YoY to RMB4,607mn/RMB453mn. 2Q results miss was due to 1) weak demand consumer markets, 2) ASP pressure due to peers’ aggressive price war and 3) significant energy cost increase. GPM decreased slightly to 23.2% in 2Q23.6% in 1Q. Looking forward, we expect PCB to outperform CCL business, driven by capacity ramp up for auto market and easing margin pressure. We cut our forecasts for 2022/23E and slightly tweaked TP to RMB19.2. Maintain HOLD.

CCL business under pressure. CCL/prepreg sales declined 18.3%/4.4% YoY/QoQ in 2Q (vs. 4.0%/-4.8% in 1Q). GPM decreased to 22.7% in 1H22 from 25.7%/29.3% in 2H21/1H21. 2Q may be the weakest quarter for CCL, due to deteriorating demand and price war. However, 2H22 could still be challenging as market demand is still on its way of slow recovery, especially for consumers. ASP should have reached the bottom given little room to cut price further.

PCB business to continue outperform. PCB sales grew 14.2%/9.1% YoY/QoQ in 2Q (vs. 7.2%/-12.2% in 1Q). GPM decreased to 21.2% in 1H22 from 16.5%/18.8% in 2H21/1H21. The majority of PCB sales were the telecom market, which remain stable. We believe the growth was mainlythe auto market. Auto PCB has experienced fast growth in 2021, with revenue contribution increasing 1% to 8%, thanks to production ramp up. Prismark forecasts PCB market to grow 4.2% YoY in 2022, moderate growth after significant growth of 24.1% YoY in 2021. We think Shengyi will outperform peers, driven by strong demand auto market, increasing capacity and easing margin pressure.

Maintain HOLD, TP adjusted to RMB19.2. We cut Shengyi’s FY22-23Erevenue by 9%-10% considering CCL demand recovery could be slow. We derive our TP using the same 16.6x target P/E multiple,~ avg. 1-yr forward P/E. TP was adjusted to RMB19.2 on valuation rollover to 2023E P/E.Potential downside risks include: 1) worse-than-expected global economy that curbs consumer spending, 2) continuous ASP pressure and 3) increasing manufacturing costs, i.e. energy costs.

证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，中金公司唐宗其研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达93.99%，其预测2022年度归属净利润为盈利27.48亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为14.66。

最新盈利预测明细如下：

该股最近90天内共有5家机构给出评级，买入评级4家，增持评级1家。根据近五年财报数据，证券之星估值分析工具显示，生益科技（600183）行业内竞争力的护城河良好，盈利能力良好，营收成长性良好。财务可能有隐忧，须重点关注的财务指标包括：货币资金/总资产率、应收账款/利润率。该股好公司指标3.5星，好价格指标4星，综合指标3.5星。（指标仅供参考，指标范围：0 ~ 5星，最高5星）

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